AMOC Collapse Visualization
A brand new examine means that international warming may paradoxically plunge Europe into dramatic cooling, resulting in extreme winter chilly spells, extra intense storms, and diminished rainfall. Common winter temperatures may plunge, sea ice may unfold as far south because the British Isles, and almost half the 12 months may see temperatures beneath freezing.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is likely one of the most vital techniques regulating Earth’s local weather. Appearing like a large conveyor belt, AMOC strikes heat water from the tropics northward and returns colder, denser water again south. This cycle drives climate patterns, moderates temperatures in Europe and North America, and helps preserve ecological and societal stability throughout a lot of the planet.
However that stability is underneath risk.
On account of rising international temperatures and the melting of polar ice, there’s rising scientific concern that the AMOC may weaken considerably – and even collapse totally. If that occurs, the ensuing local weather chaos could possibly be each extreme and long-lasting.
The Penalties of Collapse
To raised perceive and talk what may occur if the AMOC collapses a brand new interactive map has been developed to visualise completely different situations. Constructed on state-of-the-art local weather modeling from the 2025 examine European Temperature Extremes underneath Completely different AMOC Situations within the Neighborhood Earth System Mannequin by René van Westen and W. Baatsen, the software permits customers to discover projected regional impacts underneath completely different ranges of AMOC weakening.
The AMOC Collapse Visualization map is predicated on a new examine European Temperature Extremes underneath Completely different AMOC Situations within the Neighborhood Earth System Mannequin by van Westen & Baatsen (2025). The examine makes use of advanced local weather simulations to look at a state of affairs during which AMOC weakens by 80% in a world that’s already 2°C hotter than pre-industrial ranges.
In Europe, the cooling impact from a collapsed AMOC may override the final warming pattern – making a panorama of colder winters, extra snow and ice, and frequent chilly extremes. For instance, London may face winter extremes as little as -19°C (-2.2°F), whereas Oslo would possibly endure temperatures as little as -48°C (-55°F).
In the USA temperatures would typically proceed to rise, the japanese seaboard would see the twin risk of sea degree rise and stronger winter storms. Elsewhere on the earth, the disintegration of oceanic steadiness may alter tropical monsoons and scale back the ocean’s skill to soak up carbon – a harmful suggestions loop that would speed up international local weather change.
